Dots, Dots, Dots, Dots

What’s the most important ingredient in tomorrow’s Fed announcement and related events?  The dots, of course! Released in the Fed’s quarterly summary of economic projections, the dot plot shows where each FOMC member sees the Fed Funds Rate at various points in the future.  Powell has instructed markets to ignore the dots on multiple occasions, but traders keep trading them.  We see no reason for that to change this time around.  Indeed, with Powell bound to repeat the same speech he’s been giving for the past several months, the dot plot is one of the only places we can see interesting things happen.

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